Rafael Montero: Trade | Contract | Fangraphs
Rafael Montero is a name that has become increasingly familiar to MLB fans and analysts over the past few seasons. Known for his electric fastball and resurgence as a late-inning reliever, Montero has carved out a niche in some of the league’s most competitive bullpens. In this comprehensive profile, we explore his career trajectory, trade history, contract details, and what analytics platforms like Fangraphs reveal about his performance. Whether you’re a fantasy baseball manager or just an MLB fan curious about Montero’s impact, this article covers everything you need to know.
Early Career and MLB Debut
Born on October 17, 1990, in Higüey, Dominican Republic, Rafael Montero signed with the New York Mets as an international free agent in 2011. His rise through the minor leagues was rapid, thanks to his excellent control and impressive strikeout numbers.
He made his MLB debut on May 14, 2014, against the New York Yankees. Initially projected as a potential starter for the Mets, his performance was inconsistent, and injuries stalled his development.
Between 2014 and 2017, Montero oscillated between the minors and majors. In 2017, he had his most active year with the Mets, starting 18 games and appearing in 34, but he posted a high ERA of 5.52.
Injury and Comeback
Montero missed the entire 2018 season due to Tommy John surgery, a devastating blow for any pitcher. The Mets released him, and his career appeared to be on a downward trajectory.
However, in 2019, Montero signed with the Texas Rangers and began to reinvent himself as a reliever. In 29 games, he posted a 2.48 ERA and a WHIP of 0.97—numbers that signaled a promising turnaround.
Trade History
New York Mets to Free Agency (2018)
After the 2017 season and subsequent surgery, the Mets released Montero, allowing him to sign with any team. This was the turning point that led him to a bullpen role.
Texas Rangers to Seattle Mariners (December 2020)
Montero’s first significant trade came on December 15, 2020, when the Texas Rangers traded him to the Seattle Mariners in exchange for Jose Corniell and a player to be named later (eventually outfielder Andres Mesa).
The Mariners acquired him hoping he could anchor their bullpen. However, his performance was disappointing. In 2021, he had a 7.27 ERA in 40.2 innings before being designated for assignment.
Seattle Mariners to Houston Astros (July 2021)
Montero’s fortunes changed again when the Seattle Mariners traded him to the Houston Astros on July 27, 2021, as part of a multi-player deal that also included Kendall Graveman going to Houston in exchange for Abraham Toro and Joe Smith.
Despite a shoulder injury limiting his 2021 output, the Astros saw potential. In 2022, Montero delivered his best season yet, becoming a vital piece of Houston’s bullpen.
Current Contract Status
In November 2022, the Houston Astros rewarded Montero’s resurgence with a 3-year, $34.5 million contract extension.
Contract Breakdown:
- Total Value: $34.5 million
- Average Annual Value (AAV): $11.5 million
- Years: 2023–2025
The deal surprised many due to its size, but Houston clearly valued Montero’s high-leverage ability and durability in 2022.
Performance Overview (Fangraphs Analysis)
Fangraphs Overview
Rafael Montero’s statistical resurgence is well-documented on Fangraphs, one of the premier sites for baseball analytics. Here’s a deep dive into what the numbers say.
Key Metrics (2022 season):
- ERA: 2.37
- FIP: 3.12
- xFIP: 3.69
- K/9: 9.5
- BB/9: 3.1
- WAR: 1.5
These numbers show that Montero was not just lucky—he genuinely performed like a top-tier reliever.
His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 3.12 confirms that his success was sustainable. Meanwhile, his strikeout rate (K/9) and walk rate (BB/9) were respectable for a reliever.
Pitch Arsenal
Fangraphs pitch data shows Montero primarily uses:
- Four-seam fastball (~96–98 mph)
- Changeup
- Slider
His fastball has late life and vertical rise, making it difficult for hitters to square up. The changeup acts as an effective secondary weapon, particularly against left-handers.
Velocity Trends
One of the key elements of Montero’s revival has been the return of velocity post-Tommy John surgery. In 2022, his average fastball velocity was close to 97.2 mph, up from ~93 mph pre-surgery.
2023 and 2024 Season: Regression Concerns?
While Montero was dominant in 2022, the 2023 season brought challenges. He posted a 5.08 ERA in 68 appearances, and Fangraphs highlighted a decline in command and swing-and-miss rates.
Fangraphs 2023 Snapshot:
- ERA: 5.08
- FIP: 4.86
- xFIP: 4.72
- K/9: 8.2
- BB/9: 3.9
- WAR: -0.4
This regression raised questions about the value of his contract. Was 2022 an outlier? Analysts believe that inconsistency with his slider and location issues were the main culprits behind the dip in performance.
However, the Astros continued to use him in middle relief roles, keeping him out of high-leverage spots where damage could escalate.
Future Trade Possibilities
Will Rafael Montero Be Traded Again?
Given his current performance and the Astros’ bullpen depth, there has been speculation about Montero being a trade candidate, especially with contenders needing bullpen depth at the trade deadline.
Trade Suitors:
- Philadelphia Phillies: Looking for bullpen upgrades
- Milwaukee Brewers: Always active in the pitching market
- Baltimore Orioles: Young team seeking veteran arms
- San Diego Padres: Aggressive trade deadline strategy
Despite his down year, Montero still possesses tools that teams find valuable. If Houston agrees to eat part of the contract, a trade is feasible before the 2025 season ends.
Comparisons with Other Relievers
Compared to relievers with similar roles and contracts:
| Player | ERA (2022) | Contract Value | WAR (2022) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Montero | 2.37 | $34.5M / 3 yrs | 1.5 |
| Kendall Graveman | 3.18 | $24M / 3 yrs | 1.1 |
| Joe Jiménez | 3.49 | $26M / 2 yrs | 0.8 |
| Craig Kimbrel | 3.75 | $10M / 1 yr | 1.3 |
As you can see, Montero’s contract isn’t unreasonable—if he can return to form. The 2024 season could be decisive for his long-term value.
Rafael Montero in the Clubhouse
Montero has been praised by teammates and coaches for his professionalism and work ethic. Despite language barriers, he has become a mentor figure for younger Latin American pitchers in the Astros system.
Astros manager Joe Espada mentioned in spring training 2024:
“Rafa has been through ups and downs. He’s a resilient competitor, and we still believe in his arm.”
Fantasy Baseball Value
From a fantasy perspective, Montero’s value is tied directly to usage and role.
- 2022: Great value as a setup man with holds and occasional saves
- 2023–2024: Risky due to inconsistency and ERA spike
Unless he returns to a late-inning role, he’s best left on waivers in most formats.
Notable Career Highlights
- World Series Champion (2022) with the Astros
- Top-10 ERA among AL relievers in 2022
- First MLB appearance vs Yankees in Subway Series (2014)
- Rebirth post-Tommy John surgery
Conclusion
Rafael Montero’s journey has been anything but linear. From promising Mets starter to injured castoff to World Series-winning bullpen staple, his resilience has made him one of the more compelling pitcher stories in MLB.
Although his contract and recent performance have sparked trade rumors, Montero still has the tools to bounce back. Whether he remains in Houston or finds himself on another team’s playoff push, Rafael Montero’s story is far from over.
FAQs
Where is Rafael Montero from?
He hails from Higüey, Dominican Republic.
What team does Rafael Montero play for?
As of 2025, Montero plays for the Houston Astros.
What is Rafael Montero’s contract value?
He signed a 3-year, $34.5 million contract with the Astros in 2022.
How many teams has Montero played for?
Montero has played for the Mets, Rangers, Mariners, and Astros.
Is Rafael Montero a free agent soon?
No, he’s signed through the 2025 season with Houston.
What is Montero’s role in the Astros bullpen?
He typically pitches in middle relief, though he was a setup man in 2022.
