The Cowboys vs Commanders rivalry is one of the most intriguing matchups in the NFL, blending divisional history with unexpected twists in the 2025 season. These NFC East opponents always bring intensity when they collide, and their Christmas Day showdown only adds more drama to an already compelling narrative.
Current Team Form & Storylines
The Dallas Cowboys enter this matchup with a record of 6–8–1 after a tough stretch of games, including a recent loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. That defeat, coupled with earlier setbacks, eliminated Dallas from playoff contention this season. Despite this, the Cowboys are still a team with dangerous offensive weapons that can score in bunches.
On the other side, the Washington Commanders have struggled throughout the year, posting a 4–11 record. Washington’s campaign has been marred by injuries, particularly at quarterback, forcing them to turn to veteran backup Josh Johnson. At 39 years old, Johnson steps in after both Marcus Mariota and Jayden Daniels were ruled out with injuries, making this a defining moment for the Commanders franchise’s depth chart.
Injury Impact & Game Dynamics
Injuries have shaped the outlook for both teams. The Cowboys have several key players listed as out or doubtful — including linebacker DeMarvion Overshown and offensive lineman Tyler Guyton — which could affect their defensive schemes and offensive rhythm. Meanwhile, Dallas running back Javonte Williams is cleared to play after practice participation.
For Washington, not only are their projected starters at QB sidelined, but several other key contributors could miss the game or play limited roles. The lack of offensive continuity is a major concern for the Commanders as they try to keep pace with Dallas’s explosive scoring attack.
Historical Context
The Cowboys historically hold the edge in this rivalry, leading the all-time series by a considerable margin. In their previous 2025 matchup, Dallas dominated with a convincing 44–22 victory, showcasing their offensive firepower and opportunistic defense. That earlier win, coupled with Dallas’s generally stronger roster, highlights why they are often favored in this series.
Cowboys vs Commanders Prediction
So, what should fans expect when the Cowboys face the Commanders? Recent expert previews and betting trends strongly lean toward a Cowboys victory. Analysts point out that Dallas’s offense, led by quarterback Dak Prescott and playmakers like CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, is a major strength against a struggling Commanders defense. The Cowboys’ offensive efficiency contrasts sharply with Washington’s ongoing challenges on offense.
Most predictions suggest a comfortable win for the Cowboys, with many betting models forecasting a significant scoring margin in favor of Dallas. Several sports analysts even project final scores where the Cowboys cover the spread and hold control throughout the contest.
Cowboys vs Commanders Prediction:
Dallas Cowboys 38, Washington Commanders 17 (Most expert projections favor this outcome)
Key Matchup to Watch
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Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense: Dallas’s high-powered offense should exploit gaps in Washington’s defense, especially if Josh Johnson starts again under center.
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Linebacker & Secondary Battles: With several Cowboys defenders out or limited, watch how the secondary adapts to contain Washington’s passing game.
Final Thoughts
The Cowboys vs Commanders rivalry always brings drama, but this 2025 game is more than just history — it’s about momentum, injuries, and proving depth in difficult circumstances. Based on statistical trends, offensive firepower, and current team situations, most predictions lean heavily toward a Cowboys win. Whether you’re betting or just watching as a fan, expect a dynamic matchup highlighted by Dallas’s consistent offensive threats.
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