Josh Lowe: Savant | FanGraphs | Salary | Baseball Savant | Stats

Joshua “Josh” Lowe is one of Major League Baseball’s intriguing young outfield talents — a former first-round pick who blends power, speed, and athleticism with a mix of advanced analytics on platforms like Baseball Savant and FanGraphs. This complete profile digs deep into his career journey, performance metrics, salary progression, advanced stats, scouting profile, and what the analytics say about his future.

Introduction to Josh Lowe

Born on February 2, 1998 in Chesapeake, Virginia, Josh Lowe was selected 16th overall in the 2016 MLB Draft by the Tampa Bay Rays. Standing at 6’4″ and 220 lbs, Lowe bats left and throws right — prototypical tools for an outfielder with impact potential.

Over the early part of his career, Lowe has flashed a tantalizing combination of power and speed, while advanced metrics from Baseball Savant and FanGraphs paint a nuanced picture of how his approach and results stack up in today’s sabermetric era.

MLB Career Progression

Lowe’s MLB debut came in September 2021, and his breakout came in 2023, where he posted an impressive .292 batting average, with 20 home runs and 32 stolen bases — numbers that established him as a legitimate dual-threat offensive player.

However, subsequent seasons saw regression and inconsistency:

• 2024: Production dipped (.241/.302/.391) though still respectable.

• 2025: Lowe slashed .220/.283/.366, with 11 home runs, 40 RBI, and 18 stolen bases — a noticeable decline from his peak.

Across 403 career games, he has accumulated:

• 43 Home Runs

• 79 Stolen Bases

• .250/.306/.414 Slash Line
  These traditional stats show a player who still contributes as a dynamic offensive piece, though not yet consistently.

Baseball Savant Insights

Baseball Savant provides Statcast-level metrics, offering advanced batted ball, exit velocity, launch angle, and expected statistics (xStats) that help quantify performance quality beyond traditional box scores.

Key Savant data reveals:

• Batted Ball Profile: His pull percentage and air ball rates varied year-to-year, indicating adjustments as pitchers exploit weaknesses.

• Quality of Contact: Barrel rates and solid contact percentages have fluctuated, peaking in 2023 and declining in 2025 — mirroring his surface stats.

These indicators help identify whether Lowe’s struggles were due to bad luck or real decline in contact quality. In his case, lower expected slugging percentages (xSLG) along with decreased solid contact suggest pitchers have been beating him more consistently in recent seasons.

FanGraphs (FG) Analysis

FanGraphs is another essential sabermetrics resource, emphasizing metrics like wRC+, WAR, BB%/K%, and defensive value.

While specific FG numbers for Lowe aren’t always highlighted league-wide, the general narrative from FanGraphs and analysis sites is:

• 2023 was a breakout with a high wRC+ and positive WAR

• Recent seasons showed diminished offensive impact and low defensive metrics

Analysts often point to plate discipline and contact inconsistency as issues. FG also tracks defensive runs saved (DRS) and outs above average (OAA) — areas where Lowe has room for improvement given his athleticism.

Salary History & Contract Details

Josh Lowe’s MLB salary progression reflects his status as a pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible player:

According to salary databases, Lowe’s net worth is estimated around $3.6 million, and his salaries reflect the standard progression for a young player not yet eligible for free agency.

In early 2026, sources reported he avoided arbitration with a one-year contract worth about $2.6 million — showing the Rays’ continued investment despite mixed results.

Trade & Team Context

In a notable 2026 offseason trade, the Rays moved Josh Lowe to the Los Angeles Angels as part of a three-team deal involving second baseman Gavin Lux and other prospects. The move highlights Tampa Bay’s roster adjustments and belief that Lowe’s skill set could benefit from a new environment.

This change brings a fresh start and potential opportunity for Lowe to re-establish his value in a different lineup and ballpark.

Strengths & Tools Profile

Power & Speed Combination

• Elite speed for a power hitter, evident from his 32 SB in 2023.

• 20+ HR potential in peak seasons.

Athleticism

• Above-average size and strength; scouts like his build for outfield.

Plate Potential

• Capable of above-average OBP and slugging in the right conditions.

Weaknesses & Concerns

Inconsistency

• Traditional stats show a decline post-2023.

Contact Quality

• Savant metrics reveal decline in solid contact and barrel rates.

Defensive Metrics

• Defensive contributions have been modest, suggesting room for improvement on the grass side.

Comparing Savant vs. FanGraphs for Lowe

Both platforms offer valuable but distinct insights:

For Lowe, the Savant data helps diagnose why his raw numbers changed, while FG numbers help contextualize his overall value and contribution compared to MLB averages.

Future Outlook

Lowe’s outlook depends on:

• Improving plate discipline and contact consistency

• Leveraging speed for on-base value

• Enhancing defensive metrics

Analytically, if he can raise his expected slugging and reduce strikeouts, his value could spike again. Fangraphs’ projection systems and Baseball Savant’s predictive xStats will be key to watching his progression.

FAQs

1. What are Josh Lowe’s career MLB stats?

Josh Lowe has a .250 career batting average, 43 home runs, and 79 stolen bases across 403 games, with a combined OPS around .720.

2. How does Baseball Savant evaluate Josh Lowe?

Baseball Savant tracks batted ball data like launch angle, exit velocity, and expected metrics. Lowe’s profile shows variability in contact quality and barrel rates, which helps explain fluctuations in his performance.

3. What does FanGraphs say about Lowe’s value?

FanGraphs emphasizes metrics like wRC+ and WAR. While 2023 was a breakout, his contributions dropped in later seasons, with plate discipline and defensive metrics areas to watch.

4. How much does Josh Lowe earn?

Lowe’s MLB salary rose from around $570,500 in 2021 to about $775,100 in 2025, with career earnings over $6 million. In 2026 he reportedly signed a one-year deal worth approximately $2.6M to avoid arbitration.

5. Has Josh Lowe been traded?

Yes — in early 2026, he was part of a three-team trade sending him from the Tampa Bay Rays to the Los Angeles Angels.

6. What are Lowe’s strengths and weaknesses?

Strengths: Power-speed combo, athleticism, above-average tools.
Weaknesses: Consistency, contact quality, defensive metrics.

Conclusion

Josh Lowe’s story is one of potential, analytics, and adjustment. His 2023 season hinted at a breakout star, but subsequent struggles have reinforced how finely tuned modern MLB hitting must be. By marrying traditional stats with Baseball Savant metrics and FanGraphs analysis, we gain a comprehensive view of not just what his numbers are — but why they are what they are, and what his future might hold.င